Yes, I Know war is going on between Russia and Ukraine. But why should I bother?

Because you want food at affordable prices. Don’t you?

BACKGROUND

Russia and Ukraine jointly account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies.  Ukraine exported about 20 million tons of Wheat last year, while Russia exported 38.5 million tons of Wheat. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil producer, producing 19 million tons in 2020 alone, and over 70 percent is exported. Other significant food exports from Ukraine and Russia include Barley, corn, maize, and sunflower seeds.  

The Pandemic

The world is already reeling under the crisis of the Covid 19 pandemic. It caused price rises in many developing nations due to supply chain disruption, rising shipping costs, and poor growing conditions in exporting nations, all of which caused demand skyrocketing and forced some Governments to stockpile commodities. While these trends did not hit consumer prices immediately in developed economies, but developing countries were hit. And now the war has come like a bolt out of blue.

The War and the Repercussions

Ninety percent of Wheat and other grain from Ukrainian fields are shipped to the importing countries by sea. Russia started invading Ukraine in Feb ’22. Due to the Russian blockade of the Black Sea Coast, particularly key ports of Odessa (which accounts for 98 percent of grain trade) and Chornomorske, the exports came to a standstill. This prevented 22 million tons of Ukrainian grain from reaching the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Asia. 

Russia is the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and a prominent supplier of two main chemicals in fertilizers, Potassium and Phosphate. It is also a significant supplier of petroleum crude and natural gas. The sanctions put on by many countries significantly affected their trade, hitting Russia too.  

The war has begun to lead the world towards a food crisis by preventing food from leaving the bread basket of Europe and reaching countries that need it most, causing a severe food crisis in such countries. It caused food to be more expensive in developing and developed countries alike. The war sent nations worldwide into a frenzy to control the rising prices and to prevent a food crisis. 

The Impact on Africa

Russia and Ukraine provide over 40% of Africa’s wheat supply; 16 African countries with a combined population of 374 million (56%) depend on Russian and Ukrainian Wheat. Many African countries rely entirely on these two nations for the supply of Wheat, oil, and even fertilizers. The disruption in shipments to Africa after the invasion has not only blocked staples but has massively impacted the continent’s agriculture since the fertilizer supply chain is also disrupted. From cooking oil to fuel, the trade halts have increased the price of transportation and other basic amenities in the region. 

Ø  Over 40 percent of Wheat consumed in Tanzania, Sudan, Uganda, and Cameroon originates from Russia and Ukraine. 

Ø  Benin and Somalia are totally dependent on Russia and Ukraine for Wheat; both are some of the poorest countries in the world, with high rates of poverty, unemployment, income inequality, and low life expectancy. 

Ø  The price of Wheat and oil in Somalia has risen by 300 percent.

Ø  Russia and Ukraine together account for 70 percent of Sudan’s annual wheat requirement.

Ø  The West African region, including Libya, Sudan, Ethiopia, Central African Republic (CAR), and Cameroon, are all going through a war-induced food crisis. In March this year, Cameroon’s government said that an over 60 percent reduction in wheat imports from Ukraine might cause social unrest. 

Ø  The recent drought in the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Eritrea, and South Sudan) has forced at least 18.4 million people to walk each day for miles for food and water due to high levels of acute food insecurity and rising malnutrition across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Reports estimate that this figure could increase to 20 million by September.

Ø  The cost of a food basket has already risen by 66 percent in Ethiopia and 36 percent in Somalia, leaving families unable to afford even basic items and forcing them to sell their hard-earned properties and assets in exchange for food and other life-saving items. 

Ø  The inflation of oil, petrol, and gas prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war has increased transport costs for people and foodstuffs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Ø  Food consumes 40 percent of household budgets in sub-Saharan Africa.

What the world is doing

Ø The G7 leaders, in a statement, said that $4.5 billion would be used to ease the “multidimensional crisis” that has left a record 323 million people at high risk of food shortage globally. 

Ø The World Bank Group approved a $2.3 billion program to help countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity.

Conclusion

Not only Africa, no country is immune from the global food crisis, with food prices worldwide rising 23 percent higher than a year ago. It is essential to prevent a food crisis as it is closely linked with any nation’s political and economic stability. Food Grants are only temporary solutions. The whole world should prevail upon both the countries to stop the war through dialogue and amicable solutions. 

References

·         Data from the US Department of Agriculture.

·         https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/horn-africa-drought-humanitarian-update-10-june-2022#:~:text=The%20March%2DMay%202022%20rainy,to%2020%20million%20by%20September.\

·         https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/06/russias-war-ukraine-taking-toll-africa